How the wheel turns

A few years ago it was Tony Abbott looking smug whilst the Labor Party tore itself apart swapping Prime Ministers mid term.  However it appears his chickens have come home to roost and it is Tony Abbott in the firing line.

So why is it that we have this problem with being unable to keep a Prime Minister in office for the term for which he/she may have been elected? Before Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, we had 10 years of John Howard? It all stems from the fact that the Prime Minister is not chosen by the people of Australia (directly elected), they are chosen by the parliamentary party that has a majority in the House of Representatives.   This means that, as with all political parties, the leader must not only make sure they keep the public happy, but they also have to keep their elected Members happy.  Because of the ability for social media and news services to disseminate news efficiently, perceptions almost need to be managed 24/7.  If any sense of insecurity or uncertainty creeps in regarding the Leader's ability to manage expectations, then others in the party will see their chance.  As was once said, " every officer carries a field  marshall's baton and every politician wants to see their name on the Prime Minister's office. "

Now that the precedent has been set (Kevin Rudd/ Julia Gillard) it is easier for members of a party to contemplate a switch of leader whilst in power, when in the past causing a spill was unthinkable. Spills whilst in opposition are expected (who can forget that Malcolm Turnbull was dumped because he actually believed in the Carbon Tax) .

 The ability of pollsters to get a guide based on Twitter hashtags ( and let's face it we all have an opinion) to the public mood means that every comment and announcement by government can be followed shortly thereafter by a poll giving the public opinion.  In effect, the Internet and it's ability to give everyone a platform for their opinions has resulted in the ability to run polls on anything in the public sphere. Previously where opinion polls were done personally (who can remember answering the front door to a Morgan pollster, to be asked about any and all matters political?)  it was not possible to have an opinion poll published after every utterance of the Prime Minister or one of his ministers.

What does this mean for politicians?  It means that they need to be on their game 24/7 and I would not be surprised if we start seeing more of them subscribing to online monitoring services to give themselves a heads up when there is something starting to peak.  The Internet savvy politicians will be the ones leading the charge in the future and this is where we will start seeing millenials shoving their elders out of the way.  This may be the real reason why Tony and Co shot the National Broadband Network down, to give themselves more time to deal with the consequences of an educated and opinionated public.

I can see that the coming election is going to be fought more fiercely online than ever before.  I fully expect it to get dirty as well, with any smut or mud being dragged out and paraded on various social media services as "found" material.
 "May you live in interesting times" is often thought to be a Chinese curse ( although according to Wikipedia and Phrases.co.uk it is not Chinese) and I think this is coming true.

Post Script:
It appears that the media eventually pushed the Libs into toppling "One Term Tony" and installing Malcolm Turnbull.  Tony is content to believe that the positive polls prior to the Canning by-election were to blame, claiming that the Libs believed that a win here would be a win for the Party and they could change leader with impunity.  Reality is that they ran a very strong candidate that appealed to the demographics of the Canning electorate, resulting in a reasonable win.

Malcolm may have the PM job but there is still no guarantee that he will keep it past the next election. Unless he can keep the more lunatic Right elements of the NLP in line then their ravings will lose the next election, as Labour still have not redeemed themselves in the eyes of many electors (although there have not been any moves to tumble Bill Shorten that I have seen).   By winding back some of the more radical changes that were mooted in the budget last year, Malcolm can appear to be responsive to some of the legitimate complaints about last year's budget and appeal to some of the electorate that are on the fence.